\tPARTNER INTERVIEW: Ahead of MWC19 Los Angeles Mobile World Live discusses exciting progress around 5G and the challenges ahead with Nokia\u2019s Americas CTO, Mike Murphy.<\/p>\n
Mobile World Live (MWL): How do you see the progress of 5G?
\nMike Murphy (MM): Let\u2019s look at the pace first. In 4G, there were 28 months [1]between the first and last launches of the top four service providers in the US. The difference in 5G was two months. Beyond the US, the difference between first and last between Korea, Japan, China, and the US in 4G was 36 months. The difference in 5G is looking like 6 months. So, the pace of 5G is significantly more accelerated than 4G. There is little doubt that a race exists both between operators within a country and between countries. However, it is not nefarious in nature, the belief is that 5G has more long-term potential than previous \u201cG\u201d\u2019s, and so, being first matters, even though we all acknowledge it will be a marathon.<\/p>\n
MWL: What are the risks of not deploying 5G fast enough?
\nMM: Certainly, there is a potential opportunity to lose out by not capturing a wave of subscribers looking for 5G capabilities and the new revenue opportunities that come with it. This is true for any technology upgrade, but is perhaps slightly more true in this case as 5G is more challenging. With higher frequencies, combining LTE and 5G together, NSA and SA cores, it is a complex undertaking. Doing that sooner rather than later, even if on a small scale, is probably good.<\/p>\n
There is also a more subtle, hidden reason why it\u2019s prudent to deploy 5G now. LTE is running out of gas in many places. Even with massive MIMO, LAA and some moderate densification, we forecast that high capacity dense urban locations will not be able to handle the growth in capacity with LTE alone. And for some markets, the forecast is that issues will happen starting about 2021. The only solution is to introduce more spectrum which, practically speaking, means 5G. We\u2019ve had a lot of debates on this topic and the primary counter argument has been that growth will not continue at the same pace it has to date. However, early signs from Korea indicate users consuming 2.6 times more data than their 4G counterparts, and likewise Sprint saw 5 times growth. It is difficult to know if those types of numbers will be a more general pattern, however, there is no evidence that growth will slow down. If true, LTE will not be able to handle it for very long.<\/p>\n
MWL: What are the biggest challenges in deployment and adoption now?
\nMM: For the higher bands, in particular, mmWave, the main issue is the ability to acquire large numbers of suitable sites and get the coverage people expect. mmWave is behind exactly as we\u2019d forecast, meaning, fairly stringent Line of Site requirements and very moderate propagation and penetration in comparison to LTE. This means deployments in these bands will take time, but there are no showstoppers. For mid-band deployments, this issue is not as significant due to the ability to re-use sites for the most part, and for FDD bands, complete re-use is of course possible. Depending on the band, deployment is therefore more challenging or not.<\/p>\n
The next big challenge is device availability. Not all manufacturers have supplied devices and for those that have, the price points are quite high. This limits uptake, in some cases, significantly, and uptake is needed to both help operator business cases and entrepreneurs to become more enthusiastic about creating new services. That being said, by end of 2020 we would expect most device suppliers to have launched 5G products and also that multiple price points would be available.<\/p>\n
MWL: The killer question. What\u2019s the killer app?
\nMM: We didn\u2019t guess right in 3G, nor in 4G, and we are unlikely to guess right for 5G. But we always must guess, don\u2019t we? Clearly, the big differentiator in 5G is speed, capacity and latency. One would naturally think of the 5G killer app as something that would require those capabilities.<\/p>\n
The challenge for service providers is that these things don\u2019t come for free. Network design changes are likely required for some and certainly pricing as well. Let\u2019s look at the easiest example; cloud gaming. Cloud gaming requires a consistent speed and latency and uses a significant amount of capacity (GB\/month). None of those comes accidentally. Consistent speed and latency likely require some network design changes, like edge clouds, and the capacity demand for games is far beyond typical use, implying a pricing change.<\/p>\n
This is different than in 4G where we built a somewhat homogenous network with similar capabilities across wide geographies. In 5G, that is not as likely, and then the question is, where do I build those unique capabilities, like latency? Across a city? Tactically on a per site basis? I think this is one challenge our customers are or will be facing.<\/p>\n
MWL: Are there any downsides to 5G?
\nMM: There is a question about digital divide. 5G brings both risk and opportunity in that regard. The risk comes from the use of high frequencies which don\u2019t bode well when trying to cover large geographies, like rural areas. The differences in 5G are greater than those in 5G in terms of capabilities.<\/p>\n
Will those 10Gb\/s mmWave speeds only exist in dense urban corridors? That\u2019s certainly possible. In that case the digital divide will increase. However, it is also possible that 5G will help the digital divide. For places where digging a trench for a wireline connection doesn\u2019t exist or one exists of poor quality, 5G brings the potential for that to be serviced well wirelessly.<\/p>\n
For this reason, it is imperative that key stakeholders work together to ensure the digital divide is bridged.<\/p>\n
MWL: What\u2019s the best thing about 5G?
\nMM: It\u2019s delivering as expected, and it\u2019s really good. You see reports of throughputs up to 2Gb\/s today with promises of 7Gb\/s next year. That\u2019s phenomenal and It\u2019s better than wireline. And latencies are as expected as well. After years of theory and simulations, we now see that we were right. This is an incredible technology with incredible potential. We said that about 3G and 4G, it\u2019s truly different with 5G on scale we have never seen before.<\/p>\n[1] https:\/\/www.mobileworldlive.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/Mike_Murphy_Nokia_Cropped-1.png<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
PARTNER INTERVIEW: Ahead of MWC19 Los Angeles Mobile World Live discusses exciting progress around 5G …<\/p>\n
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