The future of the Fallout franchise is up in the air. Fallout 76 attempted to apply the series’ single player roleplaying formula to a multiplayer world, but even with several improvements, it’s not what many want of the franchise. Indeed, ever since Bethesda took over the series with Fallout 3, fans have been divided about the direction of the series, with differences of opinion on everything from the first-person perspective to Fallout 4‘s voiced player character.
There are two likely next steps for Fallout. Fans will likely either be made to wait up to a decade for Bethesda to finish work on Starfield and The Elder Scrolls 6 before focusing on Fallout 5, or it’s possible the studio will once again outsource to a third-party developer as it did with Fallout: New Vegas. Whether or not a third-party title would actually be a direct sequel to the story of New Vegas is unknown, but there are advantages and disadvantages of each possible path.
While it isn’t known if Bethesda has plans for another Fallout game any time soon, it’s unlikely that the studio would give up one of its most valuable intellectual properties after a few wrong steps. What is known, however, is that Bethesda is currently working on a space-faring sci-fi RPG titled Starfield, which will likely be released some time in the next three years.
It has also been confirmed that The Elder Scrolls 6 will not release until after Starfield, which some industry insiders speculating that the next chapter in Bethesda’s flagship fantasy franchise will hit shelves some time around 2026. Unfortunately for Fallout fans, this would mean that if Fallout 5 is the next game in the series, they could be look at a wait of almost a decade for its release.
This does have its advantages. If the release of Cyberpunk 2077 taught RPG fans anything, it’s that sometimes it’s better to wait for than to see a game face a rushed release. Bethesda could experiment with new features in a less risky IP like Starfield. If Starfield ends up having significantly different features than either Fallout or The Elder Scrolls, The Elder Scrolls 6 might then be used to consolidate some of the lessons learned from Starfield‘s experiments into the studio’s trademark open-world first-person RPG format.
Fallout 5 would also have the benefit of hindsight, with Bethesda able to look back at another decade of RPG releases to figure out how to make Fallout 5 truly feel like a generational step forward. To add to that, Bethesda would likely have had time to experiment with significant upgrades to its engine. Fallout 4 may have been prettier than Skyrim, but it didn’t feel like a technological leap forward.
After the release of Fallout 76, many Fallout fans simply don’t trust Bethesda less with the IP. Many were also critical of Fallout 4, not because it was a bad game, but because it deprioritized the game’s roleplaying aspects in favor of tighter combat. As a result, it often felt like Fallout 4 had far fewer ways of dealing with situations, with players simply expected to shoot and stab their way across Fallout 4‘s Commonwealth in search of their missing son.
One of the big downsides for many Fallout fans hoping that Fallout: New Vegas 2 may be around the corner is that it’s extremely unlikely that a sequel would be developed by Obsidian Entertainment. When the original Fallout: New Vegas released, Obsidian’s contract with Bethesda stipulated that the studio would not receive a bonus unless the game got an 85 on Metacritic. Fallout: New Vegas received critical acclaim and is one of the most beloved games in the series, bringing a unique wild west tone to its apocalyptic America. Nonetheless, it received an 84 on Metacritic, Obsidian missed out on the bonus, and it had to cancel projects as a result.
In recent years, Obsidian has focused on new IPs. The Outer Worlds, a satirical sci-fi set in space, clearly aimed to be a spiritual successor to Fallout in both its tone and its anti-capitalist themes. Avowed, Obsidian’s upcoming first-person fantasy game, also appears to be setting its sights on The Elder Scrolls‘ spot in the market as Skyrim fans near a full decade of waiting since the release of the last game.
It is possible, however, that Fallout: New Vegas 2 – whether it be a direct sequel or a spiritual successor of some kind – could be given to a third-party developer. This would allow Fallout: New Vegas 2 to be developed over the next few years while Bethesda works on Starfield and The Elder Scrolls 6. New Vegas 2 wouldn’t have the same advantages as Fallout 5 when it comes to new technology and hindsight, but neither did New Vegas, which used assets from Fallout 3 to create a world and story many fans found even more impressive than the third game.
New Vegas 2 is, perhaps appropriately, more of a gamble that Fallout 5. Rumors do suggest it to be in the works, though that should be taken with a massive grain of salt. However, New Vegas 2 could keep the franchise alive over the next decade, and could allow for necessary new ideas and perspectives which could help get the franchise back on path after Bethesda’s recent mistakes. Which way the series will go remains a mystery. War may never change, but by the end of the decade, Fallout will likely look very different than it did in the 2010s.
No new Fallout games are confirmed to be in development.
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