When it comes to debating the Fallout series, one common comment is whether Fallout 3 or Fallout: New Vegas is the best game. To each their own, of course, but many fans who favor the latter have often called for a direct sequel. It’s not something really common to the franchise, but neither was Fallout: New Vegas exactly.
For those unaware, despite Bethesda owning the Fallout IP, Obsidian Entertainment was the driving force behind Fallout: New Vegas. Bethesda outsourced it to the developer, with a stipulation that bonuses were tied to an 85 score on Metacritic. Fallout: New Vegas resulted in an 84, meaning Obsidian lost out on a lot of money that put it in a slight hole. Despite comments to the contrary, many saw this as the start of bad blood between Obsidian and Bethesda, but Microsoft may have just put a nail in that. With both of them under its wing, it’s more likely than ever that Fallout: New Vegas 2 could be a thing. In fact, there’s a small chance it’s already in development.
First, it’s worth looking at what’s already on the pipeline. Bethesda has multiple arms, but it is likely to be stretched thin with Doom Eternal DLC in the works, Starfield as its next big release, and The Elder Scrolls 6 in the distant future, among others. Presumably, a new Fallout game is somewhere there too, but it’s likely to be a numbered title not set to return to the New Vegas setting. At the same time, Obsidian has a lot in the works too: Grounded, Avowed, presumably The Outer Worlds 2, and more. With the backing of Microsoft, Bethesda could get even more bang for its buck, and Obsidian is showing that it’s the powerhouse some fans always knew it could be.
But that’s not all: some time ago, Obsidian Entertainment’s Josh Sawyer confirmed he was working on a secret project when it was revealed he wasn’t working on Avowed. And for those unfamiliar, Josh Sawyer is a video game designer, writer, and director who has previously worked on the likes of Pillars of Eternity, Icewind Dale, and Fallout: New Vegas. While a month ago, the possibility of that secret project being New Vegas 2 was laughable, it may not be so anymore.
Deals do not happen over night. It’s unknown when the behind-the-door chats between Microsoft and ZeniMax media began, but it’s possible it’s been quite some time now. That potential acquisition would be leverage for Microsoft to help Obsidian and Bethesda bury the hatchet even sooner than this acquisition. It’s worth noting, after all, that Obsidian Entertainment acknowledged a question on whether or not Fallout: New Vegas 2 was a possibility. Obsidian gave a non-answer, but it did, in fact, answer.
Microsoft could have used these negotiations as a way to broker peace and see Bethesda lend it—and thus Obsidian—the IP. Even if it was unrelated to these talks, it’s not impossible that Microsoft and Bethesda’s good working relationship saw this happen anyway. In short, while there’s nothing that can be confirmed as of yet, it’s not impossible the stars have aligned either.
Basically, Fallout New Vegas director Josh Sawyer is working on a secret project. Because of Microsoft and Bethesda’s working relationship, that project could be the Fallout IP. And while it’s possibly unrelated, this acquisition is just something else that could be argued as part of this possibility. In terms of development, it would still be in the earliest phases, but it would still be possible.
As aforementioned, the Fallout series hasn’t really been direct sequels. Fallout 3 takes place in the Capital Wasteland, Fallout: New Vegas takes place in the Mojave Wasteland, and Fallout 4 takes place in the Commonwealth. As such, expecting the Fallout 5 location to be anywhere familiar is unlikely, instead with it more likely being set in a new wasteland of post-apocalyptic America. But because fans have fallen in love with New Vegas and the surrounding Wasteland, many have cried for it—or at least something similar (the Fallout: New Orleans rumors gained momentum because of the similar naming convention).
If not just in spirit, Fallout: New Vegas 2 could return to the Mojave Wasteland, either years before or years after the original. It’s not really impossible that it takes place directly after the first game, but since a lot of decisions changed New Vegas itself, that does seem unlikely. No matter how it was done, though, the name alone would see fans of the original rush out in droves.
Furthermore, although some have argued that Microsoft’s Bethesda acquisition doesn’t mean future games will be Series X exclusives, there’s still the succinct possibility. Microsoft didn’t need to purchase Bethesda for it to outsource Fallout again, Microsoft didn’t need to purchase Bethesda to bring its games to Game Pass, and Microsoft didn’t need to purchase it for timed exclusive agreements. But it did purchase the whole kit and caboodle with ZeniMax Media. Securing future Bethesda games and IP as exclusive content means that the common narrative of Microsoft not having interesting exclusives (and that’s not to mention all of its other acquisitions too) is effectively over with.
Indeed, there’s still the wait before the full benefits of this purchase come into play, but with all the other projects out there, Fallout: New Vegas 2 and The Elder Scrolls 6 as Xbox Series X/S exclusives would itself be a compelling reason to buy a console. Obviously, these are likely on PC as well, but for those who prefer console, it’s an easy argument to make.
All things considered, until Obsidian confirms what its secret project is or if it is working on Fallout: New Vegas 2 at some point, this is mere speculation. But for the first time in many years, the game’s not just a pipe dream—it’s a real possibility.
Fallout: New Vegas 2 is not confirmed to be in development.
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