Since the launch of the first Ryzen processors, AMD has been steadily catching up with Intel’s share of desktop CPUs in use, with a major German retailer claiming that 84% of its CPU sales in August 2020 were AMD Ryzen. While Intel is preparing its new 11th generation Core processors by the code name of Rocket Lake, AMD is getting ready to launch its new Zen 3 based CPUs, looking to maximize its advantage.
The official Zen 3 reveal and launch announcement will take place on October 8, just under three weeks before AMD will unveil its new RDNA 2 powered graphics cards. While there are plenty of leaks and rumors around, there is enough solid information about to strongly hint at what will be unveiled.
AMD is sensibly sticking with the hugely successful Ryzen brand for the Zen 3 based CPUs and is expected to continue the existing generation numbering. Zen 3 will be the fourth iteration of Ryzen, so it should be named the Ryzen 4000 Series. AMD is expected to continue using the 3, 5, 7, and 9 designations, with the same 100 to 950 model numbering to allow people to compare the range with Intel’s competitors. Similarly, the X and XT designations for variants with boosted clock speeds are likely to remain. It would be a major surprise for AMD to change any naming conventions given its current performance in the market.
The performance battle between AMD and Intel is currently mixed, with the high number of cores on the Zen 2 based Ryzen 3000 Series having an advantage for heavy work tasks such as video editing, while Intel’s higher clock speeds provide a slight advantage in gaming performance. Rumors suggest that AMD will reveal Zen 3 processors with a clock speed boost of 200-300 MHz, which could reduce or eliminate the gaming performance gap, while boosting further the advantage in work related tasks.
Despite the name, Zen 3 is a new architecture, so is likely to provide a bigger performance boost than Zen 2, which already boosted the number of Instruction Per Clock the CPUs could handle by 15%. By moving from a 7 nm to 7 nm+ process for manufacture, AMD will reportedly gain 20% in transistor density and 10% power reduction in power consumption, while Intel’s new chips are expected to use the older 14 nm process. If d AMD leads the line-up with a 16 core, 32 thread Ryzen 9 4950X running at 4.9GHz as expected, the combination of clock boost and instruction efficiencies could see Intel’s gaming advantage vanish.
While the launch of Zen 2 saw the introduction of 12 and 16 core processors, with 24 and 32 threads respectively, AMD is not expected to announce a CPU with any more cores than this. Leaks have reportedly shown the flagship Ryzen 9 4950X to have 16 cores and 32 threads. Given that the future Zen 4 hardware will use a new socket, and that AMD is already in a commanding position versus Intel before Zen 3 even launches, it will almost certainly wait until the next generation of hardware before jumping to 18, 20, or even 24 cores as seen on the least costly Threadripper chip.
Waiting until the next generation will allow the extra cores to be paired with faster memory and other advances to better compete with Intel’s 11th and 12th generation chips, which are currently expected to launch in late 2020 and 2021 respectively. Given the lack of specific information about the full range though, it is unlikely but possible that AMD could announce added cores for the rest of the range, moving from 4 to 6, 6 to 8, 8 to 10 or 12, and 12 to 16. More likely would be an additional 10 core product to expand the range.
When the Zen 2 based Ryzen 3000 Series launched, the prices were comparable to the launch prices of the 2000 Series. Given the continuing sales success AMD is experiencing, it could afford to raise prices for the new hardware without damaging its sales performance. However, it is unlikely that AMD will raise prices by any significant margin, as it knows that Intel’s 11th Core processors are due out soon, and it will want to sell as many CPUs as it can before then.
The expectation is that AMD will announce pricing very close to the Ryzen 3000 launch prices, with perhaps a $10 to $20 increase on the higher end chips. It is also likely the launch will be supported with a price drop for the older generation hardware, making it a great time for gamers to upgrade even if they aren’t looking at Zen 3 or don’t have a compatible motherboard.
While AMD is expected to move to a new microarchitecture and socket design for Zen 4, AMD have already announced that Zen 3 CPUs will work with existing AM4 socket motherboards, providing that they are 400 or 500 Series. The 400 Series motherboards will need to go through an update process, which may not be available at launch. The 400 Series motherboards were originally not supported, but AMD has decided to add support due to demand from gamers, although AMD recommends using a 500 Series motherboard for best performance.
It is unlikely that AMD will announce an immediate launch at the October 8 reveal, as typically gamers will expect to wait a couple of weeks from reveal to launch date. It is unknown whether the launch will be staggered, five CPUs were available at launch day for Zen 2, with the flagship Ryzen 9 3950X launching four months later, followed by boosted XT variants a year after the launch date. There are also rumors that AMD may tie the launches of Zen 3 and the RDNA 2 powered RX 6000 Series graphics cards together to maximize sales for those looking to build all new PCs as well as just upgrade.
While the expectation for any hardware launch is that stock will be limited at first, AMD’s RDNA 2 based graphics chips have the additional problem of being required for use in three soon-to-be launched consoles, the PlayStation 5, Xbox Series S, and Xbox Series X. However, the same issue does not apply to the CPUs as the new consoles are using Zen 2 processors rather than Zen 3, and as both use differing manufacturing processes. Expectations are that AMD will be able to get at least a reasonable amount of stock to market before the end of the year.
AMD’s Zen 3 CPUs are expected to launch starting in October as the Ryzen 4000 Series.
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