Until now, Bethesda has been among the most predictable RPG studios. Focusing exclusively on developing the Fallout and Elder Scrolls franchise for years, both in their iconic first-person format, it has often been easy to predict the developer’s next moves compared to other studios. All that, however, has changed over the last few years.
As gaming enters the next generation of consoles, Bethesda is undergoing a significant change as well. This has left the fate of Fallout 5 in particular in question. Considering things like the Microsoft acquisition and introduction of a new IP like Starfield, many may wonder if Fallout 5 is in development, and if so, when fans might be able to expect the next game in the post-apocalyptic roleplaying series.
It isn’t currently known if Fallout 5 is in development, but it is known that Bethesda is currently working on two separate projects, with the first being is Starfield. This is the first new IP Bethesda has embarked upon for over two decades, and it remains unclear exactly what the final product will look like. It is known, however, that Starfield will be a space-set RPG which will use procedural generation to create multiple worlds for the player to explore.
More importantly for the development of Fallout 5, it has been confirmed that Starfield is set to release before Bethesda’s other main project, The Elder Scrolls 6. That particular entry in the franchise was announced back in 2018, but the lack of news regarding its progress has led many to speculate that it was announced to help deflect criticism from Bethesda’s announcement of Fallout 76 at the same time, a game which even Todd Howard recently claimed “let a lot of people down.”
There have been leaked Starfield images which supposedly show the upcoming game in a conceptual state. If the leaks are to be believed this suggests that Starfield could very well see release in the next couple of years. It’s most likely that, after Starfield’s release, more of the Starfield‘s resources will be moved over to work on The Elder Scrolls 6 in earnest, which would likely place the release of the next Elder Scrolls game around 2025. At the very least, that is a timeline many seem to agree on, disbarring any major changes.
This timeline makes it very unlikely that Fallout 5 is currently in development at the company, though it is possible Bethesda is already throwing around potential settings and early ideas, but it’s not impossible that there’s an inkling of some kind of Fallout out there. It’s also possible that Obsidian Entertainment could return to develop another Fallout game like Fallout: New Vegas. Though Obsidian and Bethesda didn’t leave on the best of terms after New Vegas’ 84 rating on Metacritic denied Obsidian a significant bonus by a single percentage point, Microsoft has both companies under its roof and could encourage future cooperation.
It could be a decade, however, before players see another Bethesda-made Fallout game. Despite the franchise’s strengths, Fallout 76 has left the brand vulnerable, and it appears that Bethesda is interested in branching out into new IPs for the first time in years. Where exactly that will leave the Fallout franchise remains to be seen.
There isn’t room in Bethesda’s current schedule for a new Fallout game in the next five years at least, but after that the fate of the franchise will likely be highly dependent on the receptions of Starfield and The Elder Scrolls 6. If both do very well, it could make Fallout the studio’s third priority, though this could also make another third-party Fallout more likely as well to keep interest in the series alive while Bethesda focuses on other IPs.
With Obsidian developing Avowed, a first-person fantasy RPG which could be in direct competition with The Elder Scrolls, the opportunity to cooperation may also have past. Though many fans will be looking forward to a new Fallout game soon, it’s likely that they will have a long wait ahead of them.
Fallout 5 has not been announced.
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